From A Wiki of Ice and Fire
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According to this theory, Loras Tyrell's severe injuries at the Siege of Dragonstone are not as they seem.
- To weaken Cersei Lannister's reign as Queen Regent, and the status of House Lannister more broadly.
- To free up the Redwyne fleet to deal with the taking of the Shields by the ironborn, as Loras initially argued.
- Mace Tyrell states that Loras's men searched Dragonstone for dragon eggs or other priceless artifacts, but found nothing. It is possible that they found, if not those specific things, something else that could be used to benefit House Tyrell.
- As far as the reader knows, the only evidence given as to Loras's injuries is what Aurane Waters tells Cersei Lannister, and as Aurane later quickly abandons Cersei, his loyalty to her is certainly questionable.
- In A Feast for Crows, Myranda Royce tells Sansa Stark that Riverrun has been taken by the forces of the Iron Throne, and that Dragonstone will soon follow. However, Aurane tells Cersei that Dragonstone was taken before Riverrun.
- According to Aurane, during the battle Loras was first hit with a quarrel in the thigh, then one through the shoulder, then had his ribs broken by a mace, but kept fighting at the front of the assault until he was hit with boiling oil. This seems an excessive amount of injuries to sustain while continuing to fight in the vanguard of an intense assault, even for Loras.
- It was the belief that Loras was out of the picture that led Cersei to begin to move against Margaery Tyrell, which set in motion the events of Cersei's own downfall.
- Loras's leadership during the siege resulted in the death of one thousand of the Iron Throne's soldiers. Whether they actually died or defected along with Loras, it would be a large blow to the forces of the Iron Throne and House Lannister.
- When taking Dragonstone, Aurane says that Loras offered single combat to its commander, Rolland Storm, but Rolland declined. This would seem to be out of character for Rolland and his belief in the Warrior. Further, Stannis only left a token force on Dragonstone, which would seem less likely to inflict such large-scale casualties on the Iron Throne's forces.
- In A Dance with Dragons, none of Stannis's followers mention having lost Dragonstone, which would have been a major defeat for them.
- Mace Tyrell states that his son's men have found nothing of value on Dragonstone. Kevan Lannister is skeptical of their thoroughness, as he distrusts Dragonstone's Valyrian origin and because he thinks Loras is too injured to lead a proper search.
- According to The Winds of Winter, a new pirate king—possibly Aurane—has established himself on Torturer's Deep. If Aurane and Loras were conspiring, this would allow Aurane to harass the forces of House Martell, the longtime enemies of House Tyrell.
- It would presumably be difficult to keep the non-capture of Dragonstone a secret for long, given how many ships pass through Blackwater Bay en route to King's Landing.
- If the siege of Dragonstone is a complete fabrication, it would require House Tyrell to conspire with Stannis Baratheon, who is known to dislike House Tyrell for their part in the siege of Storm's End. Additionally, Stannis's claim to the throne would not benefit Margaery's desire to be Queen, which is contingent on her marriage to Tommen Baratheon and his status as King.