Military strength in prior historical eras

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Military strength of different regions in historical eras set generations before the War of the Five Kings in Westeros is difficult to determine due to fewer cited statements being given for them.

Three broad principles can be observed for Westeros in the three centuries from the Targaryen Conquest to the War of the Five Kings:

• 1 – The total population doubled in the unprecedented 80 years of peace between the Faith Militant uprising and the Dance of the Dragons.
• 2 – The cavalry-to-infantry ratio in armies was at best one in ten during both the Targaryen Conquest and the Dance of the Dragons, but by the War of the Five Kings this ratio is consistently described as one in four.
• 3 – Gyldayn, the in-universe author of Fire & Blood, gave deceptively low numbers for the Dance of the Dragons because he didn't count poorly trained feudal levies and rabble. On closer inspection, it seems armies during the Dance tended to have a core of about one fourth trained soldiers (knights, archers, and men-at-arms) supplemented by three times as many "rabble" that Gyldayn frequently didn't bother to count.

Population increase

The population of Westeros outright doubled during the long and peaceful reign of King Jaehaerys I Targaryen.

The total population of Westeros is stated to have outright doubled during the 80 years of peace under Jaehaerys I Targaryen and Viserys I Targaryen, as there were no major wars between the Faith Militant uprising and the Dance of the Dragons. Accordingly, army sizes drastically increase after this long peace, but then only experience a more gradual increase between the Dance and the War of the Five Kings, because in the ensuing 170 years there was never again a generation without a major war or rebellion.

At the Field of Fire, the combined armies of the Reach and the Westerlands were 55,000. About two fifths of that came from the Westerlands, which would be about 22,000. By the War of the Five Kings, the Lannisters began the conflict with a total force of about 40,000 men, which matches a population roughly doubled in size (22 x 2 = 44). Moreover, the adjusted size of the Westerlands army during the Dance of the Dragons was apparently around 32,000 (see below).

It is also said that Torrhen Stark had a force of 30,000 men when he finally marched south to confront the Targaryens – but that this was after he took his time gathering up all possible men. In contrast, Robb Stark went south with 20,000 men, but it is explicitly stated he rushed south with what forces he could and had not yet scraped the bottom of the barrel for manpower.

Changes to Cavalry/Infantry Ratio Over Time

From the Targaryen Conquest through the Dance of the Dragons, armies were considered to have a high ratio of cavalry if roughly one in ten men were mounted; by the War of the Five Kings, this increased to one in four.

The ratio of cavalry to infantry in army composition drastically increased between the Dance and the War of the Five Kings. Sources clearly state that both during the Targaryen Conquest and the Dance of the Dragons, an army was considered to have a high cavalry ratio if one tenth of the men in it were mounted knights – this ratio stayed the same regardless of the population increase between the Conquest and the Dance.

• The combined Westerlands/Reach army at the Field of Fire was stated to be 55,000 men, of which 5,000 were mounted knights, thus one in eleven. This is presented as a high ratio for the time.
• During the Dance of the Dragons, when the Hightower army arrives at the First Battle of Tumbleton it numbered 20,000 men, one in every ten a mounted knight, and Gyldayn considered this a high ratio for the time. "The Hightower host numbered more than 20,000 as it crept upriver towards Tumbleton, almost a tenth mounted knights."
• Criston Cole’s army in the east and the Lannisters’ army in the west clearly had a ratio of less than one tenth cavalry in each (see below).

In contrast, during the War of the Five Kings different regional armies such as the Starks or Lannisters are described as having a much higher ratio, consistently about one fourth cavalry:

• The combined Lannister army at the start of the war is about 40,000 men, of which a full 10,000 are mounted knights (about 3,000 with Jaime at Riverrun and 7,000 with Tywin at the Green Fork).
• Robb Stark’s initial army was 20,000 strong, of which a little over 5,000 were mounted.
• Even the Freys’ local forces numbered 1,000 knights, 3,000 infantry.

This perhaps mirrors the "Medieval Infantry Revolution" that occurred in the real Middle-Ages by the 1300s, as stronger monarchies developed better-organized infantry trained in anti-cavalry formations, meaning that they needed a higher ratio of cavalry to achieve the same effect (the War of the Five Kings is loosely based on the War of the Roses in the 1400s, while the Dance is based on the Anarchy from the 1100s).

Underreported Rabble in the Dance

After generations of peace, by the Dance of the Dragons feudal levies and assorted "rabble" were considered so poorly trained that historians often didn't bother to include them in descriptions of army sizes: trained knights made short work of them.

Biased historical accounts of the Dance of the Dragons give deceptively small army size numbers. On closer inspection, it seems that this was intentional by George R.R. Martin: the in-universe author Gyldayn holds "rabble" of this time period in such low esteem that he doesn't bother counting the number of feudal levies. As for why Gyldayn does this for Dance numbers but not Conquest numbers, it seems 80 years of peace left feudal levies in such an untrained state that he felt they barely merited a mention.

Closely examining the text reveals the consistent pattern that the number of "regular" soldiers Gyldayn describes (both mounted and on foot) only accounts for a core quarter of the "total" army size, with the other three fourths composed of untrained feudal levies.

• The first hint of this is in the description of the army that Criston Cole and Aegon II take out of King’s Landing on the Rook’s Rest campaign: only 100 knights and 500 "men-at-arms" (by which it seems Gyldayn meant trained, career soldiers), but which were "augmented by three times as many hardened sellswords."
• When describing the initial Hightower army that left Oldtown, Gyldayn actually clarifies that he is only counting "regular" trained soldiers, mounted and unmounted, but not feudal levies: "Lord Ormund Hightower had issued forth from Oldtown with one thousand knights, one thousand archers, three thousand men-at-arms...and uncounted thousands of camp followers, sellswords, freeriders, and rabble" – if the same ratio applies that this core of 5,000 "regulars" was supplemented by three times as many sellswords/rabble/levies, this number increases to about 20,000 total.
• By the time the Hightower army reaches Tumbleton, it is described as having 20,000 men overall of which 2,000 are knights. The Hightowers took some losses at the Battle of the Honeywine but also replenished their ranks with the surviving levies of other Houses of the Reach who bent the knee.
• The main army of the Westerlands under the Lannisters is described as consisting of "1,000 mounted knights, along with 7,000 archers and men-at-arms." If this core 8,000 was supplemented by three times as many levies its total number would be closer to 32,000. This is much closer to number that would be expected from the population doubling from what it was during the Targaryen Conquest: 22 x 2 = 44, and 36,000 is much closer to the 40,000 the Westerlands could raise during the War of the Five Kings (as there were no more population booms after that).
• The initial forces of House Frey are described as 200 knights and 600 regular infantry – even though by the War of the Five Kings they were capable of fielding 4,000 men overall. If this was a one fourth core of “regulars”, 800 x 4 = 3,200 total men.
• Borros Baratheon gathered a force of "6,000" men to him at Storm’s End but then sat out most of the war, before retaking King’s Landing from rioters using 600 knights and 4,000 foot (apparently leaving the rest behind to ward off any Dornish incursions). In the War of the Five Kings, the Stormlands initially fielded armies about 24,000 strong, but the population didn’t more than double between the Dance and death of King Robert. This again matches the ratio that these 6,000 trained soldiers were about one quarter of the total force they could raise including feudal levies.
• The North and the Vale could only rush a handful of advance forces into the war, making an exact count difficult:
  • Initially the North sent the Winter Wolves, 2,000 hand-picked and mounted veterans, but by the Hour of the Wolf Cregan Stark had finally had time to raise the main strength of the North and march down the Kingsroad. Cregan's full army is stated to be 8,000 men, well short of the 30,000 Torrhen Stark was able to raise during the Conquest by similarly taking as long as it took to gather all his strength. If this 8,000 strong force was really just the core quarter of trained warriors, the total would be 4 x 8,000 = 32,000: more than Torrhen had and closer to the 20 to 40,000 the North might be capable of raising in Robb Stark's time.
  • The Vale was only able to send a handful of picked knights during most of the war, but in the final phase raised a full scale army of 1,500 knights and 8,000 men-at-arms. By the War of the Five Kings, it is loosely estimated that the Vale can raise a full army of roughly 40,000 men - despite no major population booms again such as during the long peace of Jaehaerys. Yet if these slightly less than 10,000 soldiers were only the core quarter of a larger force including levies, the raw total would be much closer to 40,000.
• The adjusted numbers reflect that Gyldayn considered a one-in-ten cavalry ratio to be high for this time period: for the Lannisters it was 1 in 32, for Criston Cole’s army it was 1 in 24, and the Freys about 1 in 16. Similarly, at face value it seems the full Arryn army raised at the end of the war had a 1 in 9 ratio of cavalry, despite some advance knights already dying in the war; however, if the real number was truly over 30,000 including feudal levies, the ratio would again drop to the 1 in 30 seen in other armies. The Hightower army at Tumbleton was considered exceptional for having a ratio as high as 1 in 10.
• The text says that at the Battle by the Lakeshore, the bloodiest land battle of the war, "2,000 men" died – which doesn’t make sense, as the Winter Wolves alone numbered 2,000 mounted cavalry and a full two thirds of them died in the battle, much less that the Lannister army was totally destroyed (numbering at least 8,000 regulars, though really perhaps 30,000 overall). Martin apparently meant 2,000 died on the Blacks side, not both sides combined, but even then it’s possible Glydayn isn’t bothering to count the losses suffered by feudal levies.