Merryweather/Theories

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There are several theories various theories regarding the true allegiances of Orton Merryweather and Taena of Myr. Some readers speculate that they might be in league with Lord Varys and his plan to seat Aegon Targaryen on the Iron Throne, while others suppose that they are the mysterious Dornish "friends at court" mentioned by Lord Doran Martell.

Allied with Varys

The following pieces of information can be seen as evidence:

The Merryweathers have always historically been noted Targaryen loyalists.^[1]^[2]
Both Owen Merryweather and Jon Connington served as Hand of the King to Aerys II Targaryen during Robert's Rebellion, and were then exiled to Essos by Aerys.^[3] If Varys recruited Jon,^[4] then it seems reasonable he may have recruited the Merryweathers too.
The Golden Company states that they have "friends in the Reach", which could include the Merryweathers.^[5]
King Robert I Baratheon restored the Merryweather's titles and lands, but also emptied their treasury,^[6] so the family's wealth and status have not completely recovered, with Orton not being as rich and powerful as his grandfather,^[7] which seems like a strong motivation for them wanting to support a regime change in the hope of restoring their house to its full former glory.
Taena tells Cersei Lannister that Olenna Tyrell keeps a large chest of House Gardener gold coins from before Aegon's Conquest, which perfectly lines up with the coin found in Rugen's chambers,^[8] which had been planted there by Varys as a ploy to cause tensions between the Lannisters and Tyrells.^[9]
Orton convinced Cersei to name Ser Bonifer Hasty, a known Targaryen loyalist, as castellan of Harrenhal,^[10] which could easily be a mechanism for Aegon to take Harrenhal or bring in some of the Riverlords for Aegon.

Allied with Doran Martell

The following pieces of information can be seen as evidence:

The Merryweathers have always historically been noted Targaryen loyalists.^[1]^[2]
King Robert I Baratheon restored the Merryweather's titles and lands, but also emptied their treasury,^[6] so the family's wealth and status have not completely recovered, with Orton not being as rich and powerful as his grandfather,^[7] which seems like a strong motivation for them wanting to support a regime change in the hope of restoring their house to its full former glory.
According to Doran Martell, his friends at the King's Landing court have warned him that Cersei intends to have his son Trystane killed during the boy's journey to the capital.^[11] The Merryweathers could be these friends, given their close proximity to the queen, being Orton the Hand and Taena the queen's most intimate lady companion.
House Martell is known to have ties to the nobility of the Free Cities, such as Braavos,^[12] Norvos,^[13] Tyrosh^[13] and Volantis.^[14] Doran and Oberyn Martell may well have recruited the Merryweathers into their conspiracy for a Targaryen restoration thanks to shared connections in Myr.
According to Queen Cersei Lannister, Taena is like a "serpent".^[8] Snakes are common in Dorne,^[15] and Dornishmen are compared to those creatures by other Westerosi,^[16]^[17]^[18] including Oberyn Martell and his daughters, who are dubbed the "Red Viper" and the "Sand Snakes".^[19] Even Taena's name resembles that of Tyene Sand.

References

↑ ^1.0 ^1.1 Fire & Blood, The Sons of the Dragon.
↑ ^2.0 ^2.1 The World of Ice & Fire, The Targaryen Kings: Aerys II.
↑ A Storm of Swords, Chapter 11, Jaime II.
↑ George R. R. Martin's A World of Ice and Fire, Jon Connington.
↑ A Dance with Dragons, Chapter 24, The Lost Lord.
↑ ^6.0 ^6.1 George R. R. Martin's A World of Ice and Fire, Longtable.
↑ ^7.0 ^7.1 So Spake Martin: Knights and Lords (March 2, 2002).
↑ ^8.0 ^8.1 A Feast for Crows, Chapter 16, Jaime II.
↑ A Dance with Dragons, Epilogue.
↑ A Feast for Crows, Chapter 27, Jaime III.
↑ A Dance with Dragons, Chapter 38, The Watcher.
↑ A Dance with Dragons, Chapter 43, Daenerys VII.
↑ ^13.0 ^13.1 A Feast for Crows, Chapter 40, Princess In The Tower.
↑ A Feast for Crows, Chapter 2, The Captain Of Guards.
↑ The World of Ice & Fire, Dorne: The Andals Arrive.
↑ A Feast for Crows, Chapter 1, The Prophet.
↑ A Dance with Dragons, Chapter 54, Cersei I.
↑ Fire & Blood, The Long Reign - Jaehaerys and Alysanne: Policy, Progeny, and Pain.
↑ A Feast for Crows, Appendix.

[Rfabthe_sons_of_the_dragon{{{3}}}{{{4}}}-1] 1.0 ^1.1 Fire & Blood, The Sons of the Dragon.

[Rtwoiafthe_targaryen_kings:_aerys_ii{{{3}}}{{{4}}}-2] 2.0 ^2.1 The World of Ice & Fire, The Targaryen Kings: Aerys II.

[Rasos11{{{3}}}{{{4}}}-3] A Storm of Swords, Chapter 11, Jaime II.

[Rawoiafjon_connington{{{3}}}{{{4}}}-4] George R. R. Martin's A World of Ice and Fire, Jon Connington.

[Radwd24{{{3}}}{{{4}}}-5] A Dance with Dragons, Chapter 24, The Lost Lord.

[Rawoiaflongtable{{{3}}}{{{4}}}-6] 6.0 ^6.1 George R. R. Martin's A World of Ice and Fire, Longtable.

[Rssm1203{{{3}}}{{{4}}}-7] 7.0 ^7.1 So Spake Martin: Knights and Lords (March 2, 2002).

[Raffc16{{{3}}}{{{4}}}-8] 8.0 ^8.1 A Feast for Crows, Chapter 16, Jaime II.

[Radwdepilogue{{{3}}}{{{4}}}-9] A Dance with Dragons, Epilogue.

[Raffc27{{{3}}}{{{4}}}-10] A Feast for Crows, Chapter 27, Jaime III.

[Radwd38{{{3}}}{{{4}}}-11] A Dance with Dragons, Chapter 38, The Watcher.

[Radwd43{{{3}}}{{{4}}}-12] A Dance with Dragons, Chapter 43, Daenerys VII.

[Raffc40{{{3}}}{{{4}}}-13] 13.0 ^13.1 A Feast for Crows, Chapter 40, Princess In The Tower.

[Raffc2{{{3}}}{{{4}}}-14] A Feast for Crows, Chapter 2, The Captain Of Guards.

[Rtwoiafdorne:_the_andals_arrive{{{3}}}{{{4}}}-15] The World of Ice & Fire, Dorne: The Andals Arrive.

[Raffc1{{{3}}}{{{4}}}-16] A Feast for Crows, Chapter 1, The Prophet.

[Radwd54{{{3}}}{{{4}}}-17] A Dance with Dragons, Chapter 54, Cersei I.

[Rfabthe_long_reign_-_jaehaerys_and_alysanne:_policy,_progeny,_and_pain{{{3}}}{{{4}}}-18] Fire & Blood, The Long Reign - Jaehaerys and Alysanne: Policy, Progeny, and Pain.

[Raffcappendix{{{3}}}{{{4}}}-19] A Feast for Crows, Appendix.

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